Key Numbers in NFL Betting

Betting on NFL games?  When you are taking a look at the point spreads, there are two key numbers you should be aware of: 3 and 7.  Why?  A statistician named Andy Iskoe researched NFL games over a 17-year time period to find out the point difference in the final scores.  Iskoe was a really smart guy, and discovered that 15% of all NFL games concluded with a difference of 3 points.  The next most significant number was 7—that was the points difference in about half as many of the games.  Following that were 6, 10, and 4.  He also found out that certain points differences were actually quite uncommon.  These include 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 15, and 16.  Other studies on NFL scores since 1920 have pointed towards the same numbers as significant—3 and 7.  Another analysis showed that point differences of 3 or 7 accounted for 19.2% of all NFL games. 

Why are 3 and 7 so often the point differences in the final scores?  It comes down to the way that NFL football is scored.  Three points are awarded for a field goal, while 7 points are awarded for a touchdown.  It really is that simple.

So what can you do with this information?  When you are looking at the points spreads on upcoming events, you can use it as a gauge to help you know when to bet.  If you see the line at values like +2.5 or +6.5 (or the equivalent negative values), you should avoid betting.  The numbers are temptingly close to 3 and 7, which causes a lot of bettors to jump in on the action.  But the odds are in the betting site’s favour and not yours, so it is a bad idea to wager.  It is better to wait and see if the line moves sufficiently in your favor that it makes sense to get in on the wager.  This information also comes into play if you are attempting to buy points.  If you are trying to cross one of these key numbers, you will find it is typically very expensive to do so. 

What should you do if the line never moves in your favour?  That probably depends on your confidence level and how much you stand to win or lose; in some cases it may make sense to bet anyway, but in other cases you may want to sit out the bet and wait for a more advantageous situation.  Remember that the points spread can determine whether you win or lose a game, and online betting sites want you to bet on games you are still going to lose according to the spread—so you can put money in their pockets.