Lessons from the Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Game

Did you bet on the Nov. 1^st Packers vs. Broncos game?  If so, did you wager based on what the sharps were predicting?  If you did, you lost money.  If you’re trying to figure out why, let’s take a closer look at the game and how you could’ve avoided losing money.

The Nov. 1^st game was highly anticipated because it is only the fourth time ever that two teams scoring 6-0 have met.  Both the Broncos and the Packers are very strong this year.  The Packers were the prohibitive favourite.  That said, hardly anyone gave the Broncos a chance.  Most people figured it was pretty much a done deal before it even started. 

Despite that, the Broncos managed to trounce the Packers 29-10.  That’s quite a significant win.  Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers suffered one of the worst games he has ever played. 

All of this serves as an excellent lesson in why you don’t want to rely on the sharps when you wager on sports.  Yes, the sharps can often point you in the right direction, but not always.  This was a case where the majority of analysts sided with Green Bay, with only a couple of prominent dissenters (one of whom was a computer). 

So what made the difference for Denver?  How could you have analysed the game and drawn the right conclusion where so many experts went wrong?  Here are some factors that probably made all the difference for the Broncos:

• The Broncos have a great defence this year, and that was something that Green Bay wasn’t ready for.
• Both teams have strong coaches, but Denver’s Gary Kubiak is particularly skillful when it comes to playing to his players’ individual strengths.
• During the bye week, the Broncos made a lot of adjustments to their offensive strategies.
• The Broncos’ owner, Pat Bowlen, is dying.  He was inducted last night into the Ring of Fame.  As such, this was a highly emotional game for the Broncos.  This intangible factor was probably significant, spurring them to new heights of motivation.  In essence, they wanted to win this game in part to honour him.

Taking all of these factors into account, you could have come to the conclusion that the Broncos at least stood a strong chance against the Packers, and were going to bring some serious game.  You might even have figured they would win. 

The November 1^st game was a surprise to practically everyone, but it wasn’t a fluke.  The outcome makes a lot of sense when you consider all the factors that went into play.  Never underestimate how much an intangible factor can drive a game—and never neglect to follow what teams are doing on their bye weeks. 

Speaking of intangibles, there is one more lesson to impart with this game.  Right now of course, there is no way to be sure how the future will unfold, but there is a strong chance that this game could redefine the season for the Broncos.  This is a huge win, and when a team senses they are on a roll, they often end up following through.  They find reserves of strength and skill they never knew they had before.  Games like these can have long-term ramifications that echo through the rest of the season.

So in short, what did we learn here?  You can’t always rely on “expert” analysis to point you in the right direction.  If you had done the homework on this one and taken the long shot by wagering on the Broncos, you could have won big!