What to Know About Betting on Football Elimination Games, Part 2

When a football tournament moves into the elimination phase, you encounter a unique challenge as a punter, because many players’ attitudes have likely changed.  Players who may not have taken round robin games seriously may now be very serious about their upcoming games.  And that means that their performance will adjust accordingly—as should your bets. 

In Part 1, I talked about some of the ways in which the pressure of playing an elimination match can impact players negatively and positively on the field.  Now I want to talk about a few other factors you should consider when betting on football in an elimination round.

The first is the roster.  When a team heads into an elimination round, there may be some changes in the roster.  The coach now knows who the strongest and weakest players are, and which players will offer the best strategic value in the elimination match.  Since the entire tournament is on the line, teams will sometimes do a lot of shuffling.  As a bettor, you will want to look for drastic changes before you place your wagers and try to analyse what those changes mean.  Why were they made?  What advantages and disadvantages will they create for the team?

Another factor to consider is suspensions.  Penalty issues tend to accumulate throughout a tournament, and by the time a team reaches an elimination round, chances are good that a few players may have two yellow cards or even a red card.  Both mean that the player is forced to sit out the game.  If a key player has to sit out an elimination game, that could have a very adverse impact on the team’s performance.

Just as players have probably been stacking up penalties, injuries are another concern.  Check the reports to see which players will have to sit out the game, and which will be on the field, but maybe not performing at their fullest.  When key players are injured, a team that generally would have a great shot at winning an elimination game may not be able to cut it.

One last thing to be aware of heading into the elimination phase of a tournament is that the betting public has become more and more invested.  Many casual bettors who may not have been involved earlier in the tournament may now be putting money down on the games.  There is going to be a lot of hype, and that excitement is going to move the lines.  It is common for the betting public to solidly back the favourite.

Try not to let yourself get caught up in all the hype.  Diligently keep doing your own handicapping.  Look for all the little crucial details that the betting public is going to miss.  Check the movements in the lines to make sure you are still getting a good value when you bet, but wager according to your betting system and your own strong predictions.  Do this, and you will give yourself the best chance of winning your bet, even when a large number of adjustments are needed!